Navigating the Higher Education Enrollment Cliff with Strategic Space Planning

The sharp and sustained decline in college-age populations will quickly make the enrollment cliff a national reality. With undergraduate enrollment already down 15% since 2010 and a projected 10.7% decrease in high school graduates by 2037, admissions teams won’t be the only ones on campus scrambling to earn college hopeful’s attention.

Space planning leaders face urgent questions about how to optimize campuses for the evolving needs of tomorrow’s constituents while dealing with everything from inflation to deferred maintenance on aging academic buildings. Here are a few key considerations for future-proofing physical spaces amid change.

Start with Qualitative Data on Space Utilization

Walking the halls on campus is how most facilities leaders learn about the utilization of space. Classroom 200 in the Humanities wing has no smartboard, Auditorium B is always cold and too far away from the dining halls, or the skylights in the student union make the space hot in the afternoons. But this qualitative data lacks the quantitative data to make strategic decisions.

Qualitative data on space utilization can be obtained in a number of ways but the most accurate way to collect qualitative data on your entire campus is with Wi-Fi based occupancy analytics. “Pervious utilization is a great predictor of future use,” said Daniel Alfonso, Ed.D. and Executive Vice President for Facilities, Public Safety and Campus services at Nova Southeastern University. What he meant by that in his presentation at Tradeline’s Space Strategies Conference, is that analyzing historical occupancy and utilization patterns, affords him a greater degree of confidence in predicting future campus utilization.

Wi-Fi occupancy data can capture space utilization data across your entire campus without the need to install hardware on campus. This unbiased data can help with everything from finding swing space to facilitating space repurposing conversations with department leaders.

Bring Satellite Campuses or Classrooms Back on Campus

Off campus classrooms, office space, and facilities can address space concerns on land-locked campuses where there’s little to no room for campus expansion. But off-campus spaces require additional operational staff, more buildings to maintain, and travel time for students and faculty. This friction often makes these locations less utilized than your main campus.

Bringing off-campus departments back onto campus can offer several significant advantages for colleges and universities. Centralizing departments on campus enhances collaboration and interdisciplinary interactions among faculty, staff, and students. This proximity fosters a stronger sense of community and improves access to shared resources and facilities.

As enrollments decrease, colleges are consolidating departments and sunsetting degree programs with dwindling enrollment, replacing them with emerging fields. Right-sizing classroom placements, restacking office space for the hybrid workforce, and adding in flexibility to renovated spaces can be enhanced by occupancy data, helping space managers home in on spaces that are prime for restacking and densification.

Invest in Highly-Trafficked Spaces

You may have more swing space on campus than you think. Reserved spaces are often ghosted or attended at lower occupancy levels than in the past due to hybrid classroom policies. Exercises in right-sizing classroom allocations and restacking spaces can optimize building utilization and uncover swing spaces that can house off-campus departments and eliminate additional leases.

Nova Southeastern isn’t alone in its goal to reinvest in spaces that are in high demand on campus. Purdue University’s space studies also led to the renovation of heavily trafficked spaces and the goal to densify down into buildings that are visited more often. This strategy allowed them to divest property which carried significant deferred maintenance burdens and was no longer serving the modern student.

Repurpose Space for Community and Revenue

With a firm understanding of space utilization on campus, finding space to lease or convert on campus can provide the college with additional revenue streams to offset costs. Commonly known as town and gown, colleges have been integral to building community with local organizations but there’s another opportunity to provide spaces for mixed use or conversion that can alleviate budgetary constraints from the enrollment drops. Campuses are already partnering with corporations and municipalities to do this.

While the enrollment cliff poses undeniable challenges, it also compels needed innovation. By embracing data-driven space audits, designing for human connection, and creating adaptable multi-use facilities, institutions can transform physical campuses into strategic assets rather than financial liabilities. As Toledo’s leadership demonstrated to Inside Higher Ed, survival requires answering: “What spaces truly serve our mission in this new era?” The answer will define higher education’s physical – and philosophical – future.